The Lithium Rush That Could Skip the Mine

IDTechEx forecasts DLE will drive the global lithium market to $52B by 2036, and Canada is quietly positioned to lead

1 May 2026

A new production method that can extract lithium in hours rather than years is set to transform the global lithium market, pushing its value to $52bn by 2036, according to research firm IDTechEx. The firm's report, "Direct Lithium Extraction 2026–2036: Technologies, Players, Forecasts," identifies the technique, known as DLE, as a turning point for the supply of lithium used in electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and grid-scale energy storage.

Existing production methods are under strain. Solar evaporation ponds, the dominant approach for brine-based lithium, take up to two years from extraction to finished product. Hard-rock mining, the other main source, involves intensive processing steps largely concentrated in China. Neither can reliably meet the pace of rising demand.

DLE works by passing lithium-bearing brine through sorbents, membranes, or solvent systems that isolate the metal directly, compressing the production cycle to hours or days. Recovery rates exceed 80%, compared with 40–60% for evaporation-based methods. Depleted brine can be returned underground, reducing water use and land disturbance. IDTechEx notes the process remains economically viable at lithium concentrations as low as 50 milligrams per litre, a threshold that makes oilfield brines and deep saline aquifers commercially usable for the first time.

Canada's position in this shift is tied to its oil and gas legacy. Alberta and Saskatchewan hold decades of subsurface infrastructure, including wells, pipelines, and processing facilities, that developers are now adapting for lithium brine operations at lower cost than building new mines. Projects in both provinces are advancing, placing Canada among a small group of countries capable of supplying battery-grade lithium to North American and Asian markets within the decade.

Obstacles persist. DLE materials remain costly to develop, and the technology is not yet fully mature at commercial scale. Volatile lithium prices continue to weigh on project financing. Whether those conditions ease sufficiently to support the forecast's trajectory will depend in part on how quickly battery supply chains move to reduce their reliance on Chinese processing capacity.